The 2026 NFL potential customers have actually been able to put plenty on movie this previous college football season, and Fernando Mendoza has actually increased above the pack after leading Indiana to their first Championship game.

In a surprising turn of occasions, projected No. 2 quarterback Dante Moore chose to go back to Oregon for his senior year.

Moore has been buffooned to the New york city Jets with the second overall choice for a while now, and his statement leaves the Jets in limbo.

Here's a look at the odds to go No. 1 overall after his announcement:

2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick Odds

Fernando Mendoza

-20000

Arvell Reese

David Bailey

+8000

Ty Simpson

+10000

Caleb Downs

Rueben Bain Jr.

+12500

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (-20000) is the clear favorite to be picked initially overall in the 2026 NFL Draft with about 4 months. Moore's statement dropped Mendoza's odds from -1000, all the method to -20000.

The Cal-transfer has changed Indiana's group from a strong, defensive-minded system in 2015 to a powerhouse on both sides of the ball. Mendoza has an NFL construct, standing at 6'5, and weighing 225 pounds.

He's completed 71.5% of his passes for 2,980 lawns, 33 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while leading the Hoosiers to a 13-0 record, a Big Ten Championship, the Championship game, and the No. 1 seed going into the playoff.

After Moore's announcement, Arvell Reese jumped up to No. 2 at +8000. The Buckeyes linebacker, is an alien that can play off-the-ball linebacker or line up on the edge and hurry the QB.

He's incredibly strong, quick, and agile and was turning up all over the tape through the beginning parts of the season, but hasn't been as efficient in the back half.

Texas Tech's David Bailey's odds have likewise jumped after a terrific performance at the NFL Combine.

The pass rush stands 6' 3" high, and 250 pounds. in 2025 he racked up 14.5 sacks and three required fumbles, and has exceeded Rueben Bain Jr who has actually been docked by scouts for having much shorter arms than standard elite pass rushes.

Alabama's Simpson (+10000) is the 2nd QB on this list after bring a Crimson Tide offense that can hardly run the ball. The junior has 3,268 passing yards and 26 touchdowns while throwing 5 picks.

Simpson is smooth and precise with a quick throwing movement that must equate well to the NFL.

Ohio State's safety Caleb Downs (+12500) is a predicted top-ten pick due to his football IQ and do-it-all playstyle where he can cover on the back-end, and come near lay the boom on a running back like a linebacker.

Another defensive gamer with +125000 chances to go number one is Miami's protective end Rueben Bain Jr. The Hurricane is 6'3, 275 pounds and has tape-recorded 4.5 sacks and 7.5 takes on for loss while requiring a fumble and getting an interception and has dominated in the playoffs.

Arch Manning was the preseason odds-on preferred to go No. 1, however after a slower year than anticipated he plans to go back to Texas for another season.

Miami (FL) vs. Indiana: 2026 Championship Game Preview.